Last month NASA announced they were conducting a
feasibility study on adding a crew to the first planned mission for their new
rocket—the Space Launch System (SLS). Currently, the first flight of the SLS
(Exploration Mission 1 or EM-1) is scheduled for late 2018 with an uncrewed Orion
spacecraft. The first crewed mission would occur around 2021 according to the
current plan. This study apparently comes at the urging of the Trump
administration, which has yet to name a NASA administrator. Is this idea just political
bluster?
Before I dive into my analysis of the idea, let’s
cover the basics of NASA’s new rocket and capsule. The rocket, SLS, is
being designed to take astronauts past low Earth orbit. There will be several
configurations known as “blocks” to gain higher performance. Astronauts will
reside in the Orion Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle, often referred to as the Orion
spacecraft. It strongly resembles the Apollo Command/Service Module that
carried astronauts to the Moon in the 1960s. SLS and Orion are pictured
below.
SLS Block Configurations. Photo Credit: NASA
Artist Rendition of Orion in Earth Orbit. Photo
Credit: NASA
With that covered, let’s head back to my thoughts on
the feasibility study. I am tremendously skeptical of this potential shift in
mission schedule. Without a long-term space policy in place, rushing into a
crewed mission serves no useful purpose. Rushing into a plan where astronauts
are aboard the first SLS/Orion flight will increase risk substantially. Some of
this risk could be mitigated with more funding, but that is unlikely to happen.
Additionally, there is no reason to squander precious financial and time
resources without a long-term plan in place. It is best to take a step by step
approach with space hardware development with no long-term plan in place. My
main point is simple—we need a long-term plan (ideally 10-15 years) for space exploration
before rushing into anything.
If the Trump administration would propose—and fund—a
robust space policy with specifically defined goals, I would happily support
the effort. Having said that, many presidents have offered grand space plans
without properly shepherding the proposal through Congress for approval. When
plans have been approved by Congress, administrations usually fail to push
Congress for adequate funding (i.e. George W. Bush’s 2004 Vision for Space
Exploration).
Given the terrible track record most presidents have
with space policy, I have serious doubts about Trump’s ability to articulate, push
for, and provide enduring support for a robust space effort. President Trump
has a history of making grandiose proposals and statements without the needed
backing. Furthermore, if President Trump waits until late this year or later to
make his space policy proposal, his political capital will likely be too
depleted for a major shift in space policy. A major policy change towards
increased space exploration outside low Earth orbit will require more funding
if NASA continues to operate the International Space Station and other
important programs.
At the beginning of this post I asked if this proposal
was political bluster by the new administration. My answer: without a doubt. Trump
is trying to have a “Kennedy” space moment without the wisdom, support, and
effort President Kennedy gave in the 1960s.
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Learn more about SLS and Orion using the links below:
Sources used:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/speaking-of-science/wp/2017/02/24/nasa-officials-discuss-trumps-push-for-first-term-moon-mission/?utm_term=.8bc8d290b207
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